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Beyond Capital
Our quarterly read on the economy, markets and the decisions behind them, plus the investing principles we come back to again and again.
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The AI Cracks Are Making Headlines
Treasury yields above 5%, a Fed still raising rates, and a market leaning on one investment theme. What the latest signals say about risk.
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“The Fall” of the Stock Market and the U.S. Economy
Twenty-five years of rising debt, and why structural change is painful when the decision is made for us rather than by us.
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2025 Market Forecast: Did Santa Fall Off His Year-End Rally Sleigh?
Why forecasts are only as good as the day they’re written, and how fundamental and technical analysis tell different stories.
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Did the U.S. Economy Have Its Ticket Punched?
The election has come and gone. What the result may mean for the economy and markets in the months ahead.
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A Tale of Two U.S. Economies
September is historically the market’s weakest month. A look at the two economies hiding inside the headline numbers.
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The Unemployment Fiasco
A surprise jump in unemployment and the yen carry-trade unwind sent markets on a roller coaster. What happened and why it matters.
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Did Immigration Mask U.S. Economic Problems?
How population growth may have flattered the employment data, and what that means for reading the economy.
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Will the Fed Engineer a Sticky Landing?
A bumpy second quarter for stocks and bonds, and the case for a landing that is neither hard nor soft.
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The Tipping Point in the Stock Market?
“Sell in May and go away” meets a market driven by a handful of stocks. Signs of a market near its tipping point.
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“In the Fed We Trust”: The Great Debate
Rate cuts, inflation and the debate over how much the Federal Reserve can steer the economy.
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Winter Is Not Coming, but Is a Recession?
The “R” word faded in 2023. A closer look at the indicators that still point to risk.
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Ticking Time Bomb: The Wall of U.S. Debt
How the country’s debt load grew, and why the wall of maturing debt deserves investors’ attention.
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Is the Stock Market Broken?
When a few stocks carry the index, what does “the market” really measure?
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2024 Stock Market: Bull or Bear Case?
The Magnificent Seven, a relentless Fed and the arguments on both sides heading into 2024.
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Are Small-Cap Stocks the Canary in the Coal Mine?
What small-company stocks may be signaling about the broader market and economy.
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Trick or Treat? Will 2024 Become the Next 2008 Crash?
Comparing today’s conditions with the run-up to 2008, and why the comparison is useful but not exact.
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Déjà Vu: Will the 2022 Housing Market Crash Like 2008?
Every outlet is talking about a housing slowdown. What’s similar to 2008, and what’s different.
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The Dirty Secrets of the IRA
Should you roll your employer plan into an IRA? The trade-offs few people mention.
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The Untold Secret of Real Estate Depreciation
Flipping houses gets the attention. Depreciation is the part of real estate investing that rarely does.
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The Death of the Robo-Advisor
Why systematic rebalancing and broad diversification may not be enough when markets turn.
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How Does Your Risk Tolerance Affect Your Portfolio Risk?
Why a questionnaire label is a poor substitute for knowing the risk your plan can carry.
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Who Benefits From Investment Management?
What investment management actually is, and the investors it serves best.
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Stock Picking or Model Portfolio?
Why having “a guy” who picks stocks became a harder case to make, and what replaced it.
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